“To beat Trump, Biden needs nine in 10 Black votes, and lots of Black voters to cast ballots. Currently, he’s positioned to win only eight in ten, with two out of ten Black voters ready to support Trump, and overall Black turnout looking to be flat, at best,” Basham told the Sunday Express.
Trump performed well in several key battleground states.
In Florida, Trump leads Biden by four points, 48 percent to 44 percent, in the part of the poll conducted among 500 likely voters.
In Minnesota, Trump leads Biden by two points, 46 percent to 44 percent, in the part of the poll conducted among 450 likely voters in that state.
In New Hampshire, Trump leads Biden by two points, 45 percent to 43 percent, in the part of the poll conducted among 400 likely voters in that state.
The poll currently projects Trump is on track to win 320 Electoral College votes, compared to Biden’s 218, which is 50 electoral college votes more than the 270 Trump needs to win in 2020 to be re-elected.
At the national level, 61 percent of poll respondents believe Trump will be re-elected, while 39 percent believe he will not.
Thirty-two percent of poll respondents consider law and order the most important issue, followed by 30 percent who say it is jobs and the economy, and 15 percent who say it is the coronavirus pandemic, and another 15 percent who say it is education.
Twelve percent of poll respondents say that Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court makes them more likely to vote for the president, nine percent say it makes them less likely, and 79 percent say it makes no difference.
Eighty-seven percent of Biden supporters said they were “comfortable with relatives, friends, coworkers knowing how you vote,” but only 22 percent of Trump supporters with the same.
Nineteen percent of poll respondents said Trump’s positive coronavirus test made them more likely to vote for the president, while 13 percent said it made them less likely to do so, and 68 percent said it made no difference.
The results of the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll on the question of who won the September 29 presidential debate differed from those of most other polls.
When asked “Who won the TV debate?,” 32 percent of poll respondents said Trump, while 18 percent said Biden. Fifty percent of respondents said the debate was a draw.
Twenty percent of poll respondents said the debate made them more likely to support Trump, while eight percent said it made them more likely to support Biden. Seventy-two percent said it made no difference.
Friday’s IBD/TIPP Poll on that question, for instance, returned different top-line results on the question of “who won,” but found the debate switched more undecided voters to Trump than to Biden:
Contrary to my own observations, it looks like the President has not been hurt by his debate performance nor his hospitalization. His 47% performance is actually one point higher than his vote percentage in 2016.
For now, he appears to have consolidated his base of Whites, parents, conservatives, men, and his own party’s voters.
Joe Biden looks as if he is on his way to doing the same with his base. His numbers among Hispanics are respectable but not quite at the 66%-67% he really needs. The same with Blacks. His 86% is better than our last poll but he needs to hit 90%, especially in those key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia. His 60%-35% lead among young voters is about where he needs to be.
Polls after the first presidential debate in 2016 between Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Donald Trump showed that Clinton “won” that debate over Trump by margins of as much as 30 percent.